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Penalty shootout betting is live betting compressed into a handful of moments. When a knockout match is still level after extra time, the tie is decided by penalties, and a sportsbook that keeps its markets open re-prices the outcome after every single kick. A goal, a save or a miss changes how many kicks each team still needs to convert, so the price for each side to win the shootout can move sharply between one attempt and the next.
This matters for two reasons. First, the shootout is where a knockout tie is finally settled, so it decides to qualify and to advance bets that are still open. Second, the way odds move during a shootout is a clear, small-scale illustration of how all live prices work, a theme covered more broadly in our guide to how live betting works in soccer. This article explains how the shootout procedure shapes the market, how prices update kick by kick and in sudden death, why markets are suspended between kicks, which bets include the shootout and which do not, and why the outcome stays genuinely uncertain right up to the final kick. All prices shown are hypothetical examples, not current lines.
How a Penalty Shootout Works in Soccer, From a Betting View
Under the Laws of the Game, when competition rules require a winner after a drawn match or tie, a penalty shootout is one of the permitted tiebreak procedures, often used after two periods of extra time. The shootout is taken after the match has ended, which is why shootout kicks are recorded separately from the match score. A game that finishes 1-1 after extra time is still recorded as a 1-1 draw, with the shootout result listed alongside it.
The basic structure is simple. A coin toss decides which goal is used, and a second toss lets the winning team choose whether to kick first or second. The teams then take five kicks each, taken alternately, with each kick taken by a different eligible player. Only players on the field at the end of the match are eligible, and a player sent off during the match cannot take part. Cautions from the match are not carried into the shootout.
Two rules drive almost all of the in-play pricing. The first is the early finish: if one team has scored more than the other could reach even by converting all of its remaining kicks, no more kicks are taken. The second is sudden death: if the teams are level after five kicks each, kicks continue in pairs until one team scores more from the same number of attempts. That means the shootout has no fixed length. It can end after as few as three kicks per side or run well past five.
For a bettor, the useful way to see this is as a race with a shrinking finish line. Before the first kick, both teams have the full five attempts available. Each kick removes one attempt from one side and either adds a goal or does not, so the number of kicks remaining is the key input behind every price you see. The fewer kicks remain, the more each one is worth.
How Penalty Shootout Odds Move Kick by Kick
A shootout market prices one question: which team wins the shootout, and therefore the tie. The price starts from an estimate made before the first kick and then updates in discrete steps, one per kick, rather than drifting continuously the way an in-play match price does with the clock.
Before the first kick
Once extra time ends level, the opening shootout price usually sits close to even, because the market treats shootouts as much closer to a coin flip than open play. Sportsbooks may still shade the price for factors they believe matter, such as goalkeeper quality, which team kicks first, or the likely kickers on each side, but the gap between the two teams is normally far narrower than it was in the 90-minute market.
After each kick
Every kick is a binary event that moves the price. If the first kicker scores, that team gains a small edge, because the opponent now has to match it. If the first kicker misses, the shift is larger, since a miss is rarer than a goal and the opponent now has a chance to take the lead. A miss usually moves the price more than a goal, simply because it is the less expected result. As the shootout goes on, the same kind of event carries more weight because fewer kicks are left to recover.
Sudden death
Once the teams are level after five kicks each, the market enters its most volatile phase. Each round is a pair of kicks, and one round can end the tie in either direction. If the first team in a round scores, the second team must score just to continue; if the first team misses, the second team can win the tie with one conversion.
Suspension between kicks
Sportsbooks normally suspend the market as a kicker steps up and keep it closed until the result is confirmed. This is the same logic as any live betting market suspension: the outcome of the next event is about to become known, and accepting bets during that window would invite bets from anyone with a faster view of the action. The practical result is that you can usually only bet in the short gaps between kicks, and the price you see when the market reopens already reflects the last kick. Bets submitted at the moment of suspension are typically rejected or re-quoted rather than accepted at the old price.
Worked Example: Shootout Prices After Each Kick
To see how large the moves can be, imagine two evenly matched teams in a hypothetical shootout. Assume each kick is converted 75% of the time for both teams, kicks are independent, and Team A kicks first. These are illustrative modelling assumptions, not real conversion statistics. The table shows the resulting win probability for each team at several points, along with the fair decimal odds (1 divided by the probability) before any sportsbook margin is added.
| Shootout state (hypothetical) | Team A win probability | Team A fair odds | Team B win probability | Team B fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before the first kick | 50.0% | 2.00 | 50.0% | 2.00 |
| Team A scores its first kick | 57.0% | 1.76 | 43.0% | 2.32 |
| Team A misses its first kick | 29.1% | 3.44 | 70.9% | 1.41 |
| After one round: A scored, B missed (1-0) | 77.9% | 1.28 | 22.1% | 4.52 |
| After four rounds: level at 3-3 | 50.0% | 2.00 | 50.0% | 2.00 |
| After four rounds: A leads 4-3 | 90.6% | 1.10 | 9.4% | 10.66 |
Notice the asymmetry. A goal on the first kick moves Team A from 50.0% to 57.0%, while a miss drops it to 29.1%. And a one-goal lead with one round left is worth far more (90.6%) than a one-goal lead after the first round (77.9%), because the trailing side has fewer chances to recover. In sudden death, the same model puts the team kicking first at 62.5% after it scores and 12.5% after it misses.
Now add a price. Suppose that after Team A misses its first kick, a sportsbook offers Team A at 3.20 and Team B at 1.33. A $50 stake on Team A at 3.20 would return a $160 payout, which is $110 in profit, if Team A wins the shootout. The implied probability of 3.20 is 1 divided by 3.20, or 31.25%, compared with 29.1% in the model. Team B at 1.33 implies 75.19%. The two sides add up to 106.44%, and the excess over 100% is the sportsbook’s margin, which is why each offered price is shorter than its fair value.
Do Penalty Shootout Goals Count in Betting? 90-Minute vs To Qualify Bets
This is the question that causes the most confusion, and the answer depends on what the market grades. Because shootout kicks are not added to the match score, goal-based markets normally ignore the shootout entirely. Totals, both teams to score, correct score and goalscorer markets are usually settled on regulation time, or on the score after extra time where a market explicitly includes it, never on shootout kicks.
The standard match result market (the soccer 1X2) also normally settles at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Suppose you bet $50 on Team A to win in 90 minutes at hypothetical odds of +140. That price implies 41.67%, and a win would pay $120, of which $70 is profit. If the match is 1-1 at full time, that bet has already lost before the shootout begins, even if Team A goes on to win on penalties. Extra-time rules for full-match markets vary, as covered in our article on live betting markets in overtime.
Markets that grade progression are different. A to qualify bet backs a team to advance, so the shootout result decides it. Suppose you hold Team A to qualify at hypothetical -125 with a $125 stake: the implied probability is 55.56%, and a win pays $225, which is $100 in profit. If Team A wins the shootout, that ticket wins, regardless of the drawn scoreline. A dedicated “shootout winner” market works the same way but only exists once the shootout is confirmed.
Two points are worth adding. First, once a shootout starts, the to qualify market and the shootout-winner market describe the same remaining event, so their live prices should move together, allowing for different margins. Second, settlement wording is not standardized. Some sportsbooks also offer shootout-specific props such as the number of kicks taken or whether a particular kick is scored, each with its own void rules if no shootout happens. Read the market rules before assuming a bet includes, or excludes, the shootout.
Common Mistakes in Penalty Shootout Betting
The first mistake is assuming a 90-minute bet carries into the shootout. A match result bet on a team that eventually wins on penalties usually lost when the score was level at full time. Checking which clock a market uses before the match avoids an unpleasant surprise at the end of it.
The second is reading a big price swing as a sign the outcome is settled. After a lead with one round left, a team can sit at 90% or more, but a 90.6% chance still loses about one time in eleven under the same assumptions. A shootout lead is a probability edge, not a certainty, and one save can reverse it.
The third is believing a strong team in open play automatically carries that edge into the shootout. Penalty kicks are a narrow, high-pressure skill contest, and the 90-minute favorite is not necessarily the shootout favorite. Markets usually reflect this with prices much closer to even.
The fourth is chasing the swings. Because the market reopens between kicks, it is tempting to place a new bet after every goal or miss. Each new bet carries its own margin, and repeated bets in a fast, emotional window add cost and risk rather than control. Setting a stake limit before the match, and not increasing stakes to recover a loss, is far safer than reacting kick by kick.
What a Live Shootout Looks Like at the Sportsbook
In practice, the shootout market usually appears on the match page as soon as extra time ends level, often alongside the still-open to qualify market. Once the kicks begin, the market spends most of its time suspended, opening only briefly between attempts. The windows can be short, so a price you were looking at may change before your bet is confirmed, prompting an “odds have changed” message.
Limits can also be lower than usual. A shootout is a high-information, fast-resolving event, so sportsbooks often reduce the maximum stake accepted or offer fewer markets than they do during normal play. Cash out offers on open to qualify bets will also jump with each kick, tracking the same probabilities shown in the worked example. Any cash out or hedge decision during a shootout is a choice about risk, not a way to remove it: the offer already includes the sportsbook’s margin, and a hedged position still depends on how the remaining kicks go.
Related Concepts and Next Steps
To get more from shootout prices, it helps to be comfortable converting odds into probabilities, which is explained in our guide to implied probability in sports betting. That skill lets you see how much each kick actually moved the market and how much margin sits in the price. If you are holding a to qualify bet as a match heads to penalties, read what hedging a bet means before deciding whether to place an opposing wager. From there, the broader live soccer articles cover how the same repricing logic applies to goals, red cards and the match clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
