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A make the cut bet is a wager that a golfer will survive the halfway cut of a tournament and earn the right to play the final two rounds. Its mirror image, the miss the cut bet, wins if the golfer is eliminated after 36 holes. These markets exist only because of the way professional golf events are structured: most four-round tournaments trim the field after Friday, and roughly half of the players go home. That single checkpoint turns a 72-hole event into a much shorter yes-or-no proposition, settled long before anyone knows who will win. This article explains how the cut works on the PGA TOUR and in the majors, why the rules differ between events, how sportsbooks price both sides, and how withdrawals, disqualifications and weather are typically handled. It sits alongside the blog’s guide to outright winner and matchup betting in golf, and every price below is a hypothetical example, not a current market.
What a Make the Cut Bet Is
A cut market is a two-way proposition on one golfer: either he plays the weekend or he does not. The sportsbook lists a “make the cut” price and a “miss the cut” price for the same player, and the bettor chooses a side. Unlike an outright, which asks one golfer to beat an entire field, the cut market only asks him to beat a moving threshold after two rounds.
The key term is the cut line, the score that separates players who advance from those who are eliminated. It is not fixed in advance. It is set by the scores the field actually posts over the first 36 holes, so a golfer can shoot an identical total in two different weeks and make the cut in one and miss it in the other.
Because roughly half of a typical field advances, cut prices sit much closer to even money than the long odds of an outright board. Elite players are usually short favorites to make the cut, while lower-ranked or out-of-form players can be favorites to miss it. That makes the market feel simple, but the price on each side still reflects the sportsbook’s probability estimate plus its margin.
A cut bet is also different from a top 5, top 10 or top 20 finish bet. A placement bet needs a strong 72-hole finish; a cut bet is decided after 36 holes, and what happens on the weekend is irrelevant to the result.
How the Golf Cut Line Works on Tour
How the cut works in golf depends on the tour and the specific event, not a single universal number, so the first step in understanding any cut bet is knowing which rule applies that week.
Full-field PGA TOUR events
Under the PGA TOUR’s tournament regulations, the starting field in a standard event is reduced after 36 holes to the 65 lowest scorers, including anyone tied for 65th place. Amateurs count toward that number. In a 156-player field, 65 places represent about 41.67% of the field before ties, and ties at the line regularly push the real number of survivors higher.
How is the cut line determined in golf?
The cut line is simply the score of the player in the last qualifying position once all second-round scores are posted. If the 65th-best total is two over par, every player at two over or better advances. The regulations also state that once the field has been reduced and the next-round groupings approved, a later withdrawal or disqualification does not change the cut line.
Majors and Signature Events
The majors set their own rules. PGA TOUR coverage of the 2026 PGA Championship described the Masters as cutting to the top 50 and ties, the U.S. Open to the top 60 and ties, and the PGA Championship and The Open to the top 70 and ties. Some Signature Events have no cut at all, while the three player-hosted Signature Events cut to the top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead. Other tours, including the DP World Tour and LIV Golf, use their own formats, and rules can change between seasons, so check the specific event before betting.
Weather and shortened events
Weather can also intervene. The PGA TOUR regulations allow officials to change the cut when play is compressed, for example by cutting to the score closest to 60 players if the final 36 holes must be played in one day. A changed cut can change the result of a cut bet, which is why sportsbooks publish their own rules for shortened events.
How Make and Miss the Cut Bets Settle
Most cut bets are graded as soon as the cut is official, usually Friday evening or Saturday morning if the second round is delayed. A golfer who advances wins the make side; one who is eliminated wins the miss side. The general grading process is described in how sports bets are settled, but golf adds a few edge cases.
Ties at the cut line do not create a dead heat. Because every player tied for the last qualifying position advances, a golfer who finishes level with the cut line has made the cut outright. This is different from placement markets, where ties across a threshold can trigger the dead heat rules that reduce a winning stake.
Withdrawals and disqualifications are handled by house rules that vary between sportsbooks. A common approach is that a golfer who withdraws before his first tee shot has his cut bets voided and stakes returned. A golfer who tees off and then withdraws or is disqualified during the first two rounds is often treated as having missed the cut, so the make side loses and the miss side wins. Some operators void both sides instead, so read the market rules.
A golfer who makes the cut and withdraws later is usually graded as having made it, because the cut has already been decided. PGA TOUR regulations still pay a player who makes the cut and then withdraws, which supports that common reading, but the sportsbook’s own rules always decide the ticket.
Worked Example: Pricing a Make the Cut Bet
Suppose a sportsbook lists a highly ranked golfer at -250 to make the cut and +190 to miss it. These are hypothetical prices. The table below converts each side using the standard formulas and shows the result of a $100 example stake.
| Side (hypothetical) | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on $100 | Payout on $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Make the cut | -250 | 71.43% | $40.00 | $140.00 |
| Miss the cut | +190 | 34.48% | $190.00 | $290.00 |
For the favorite, implied probability is 250 / (250 + 100) = 71.43%, and profit is $100 × (100 / 250) = $40, so the payout including the stake is $140. For the underdog, implied probability is 100 / (190 + 100) = 34.48%, and profit is $100 × (190 / 100) = $190, for a $290 payout. The two sides add up to 105.91%, and the extra 5.91% above 100% is the sportsbook’s margin in this market.
Removing that margin gives a fair estimate of about 67.44% to make the cut and 32.56% to miss it. The make side wins if the golfer’s 36-hole total is at or better than the cut line, and it loses if he finishes outside it. In practice, a single poor round of four or five over par can be enough to flip the result.
How to Read Make Cut Odds and the Projected Cut
Reading a cut price starts with implied probability. At -250, the make side needs the golfer to survive about 71.43% of the time just to break even. If a bettor estimates his true chance at 75%, the expected value of a $100 bet is 0.75 × $40 − 0.25 × $100 = +$5. If the true chance is 68%, the same bet is worth 0.68 × $40 − 0.32 × $100 = −$4.80 per bet on average. A few percentage points decide whether a short price is fair, and those points are exactly where estimates are least reliable.
Comparing both sides helps. Stripping out the margin with a no-vig calculation shows what the market itself believes before the sportsbook’s cut is added, which is a more honest starting point than the listed price alone.
Several golf-specific variables move these prices. Field strength changes how hard the cut is: a Signature Event with a 50-and-ties cut is a tougher target than a 65-and-ties cut in an opposite-field event. Course difficulty, tee-time waves with different weather, recent form, and whether a player is returning from injury all shift the estimate.
During Thursday and Friday, broadcasts and leaderboards show a projected cut, the score that would be the cut line if play ended now. It is a snapshot, not a forecast: late finishers, wind and scoring conditions in the afternoon wave can move it by a shot or more. How sportsbooks reprice cut markets while play is underway is covered in how live golf betting works.
Common Mistakes With Cut Bets
The most common mistake is treating a short favorite as a near-certain make the cut. A -250 price still implies that about 28.57% of equivalent outcomes go the other way, and top players miss cuts every season. Over many bets, that losing share is not bad luck; it is what the price already describes.
A second mistake is assuming every event has the same cut rule. A golfer who would comfortably make a 65-and-ties cut can be a genuine risk against a 50-and-ties cut, and there is no cut market at all in a no-cut event.
A third mistake is ignoring withdrawal rules. Bettors often assume a withdrawal refunds every bet, then find their make the cut ticket graded as a loss because the golfer teed off before leaving the event.
The last mistake is stacking short cut prices into parlays to make the payout feel worthwhile. Each leg adds its own margin and its own chance of failure, and several favorites combined are far less likely to all win than any single leg. Stakes should always come from money set aside for entertainment.
Where Cut Markets Appear at the Sportsbook
Cut markets usually sit on a tournament’s golf page under a props or specials section, next to outrights, placement markets and matchups. Many sportsbooks only post them for well-known players or for the majors, and availability depends on whether the event has a cut. Prices typically go up early in tournament week and come down at the first tee time, then may reappear as in-play markets during the first two rounds.
Cut status also affects other golf bets. A golfer who misses the cut usually loses a top 10 bet immediately, and in tournament-long matchups, a player who makes the cut against one who misses is often graded the winner on the spot, subject to the sportsbook’s rules. The cut is the first checkpoint for most tournament-long golf bets, not only for the cut market itself.
Related Concepts and Next Steps
Cut bets make most sense once the wider golf board is familiar, so the outright and matchup guide is a good starting point. From there, the top-finish markets show how 72-hole placement bets differ from a 36-hole checkpoint, and the live golf guide explains how prices change while the cut is still being decided. Converting prices into probabilities is the skill that ties all of these markets together. As with any wager, nothing about a cut bet is guaranteed, and setting limits before the event starts is part of making an informed decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
